NOVEMber 2025 Market Comments

“Turn every stone”, Lalo Schifrin, 1969

It’s indeed necessary so far in 2025 to turn every stone to find an asset class that has not delivered positive returns. From credit to developed or emerging markets equities, not to mention Gold, Value or Growth, everything flashes green, and November, although a tad less buoyant, was no exception. Turning two pebbles would uncover the outliers, which are Oil and the Bitcoin (respectively down 18.4% and 2.7% year to date in USD), the latter having been hammered in November in particular (-16.7%).

The narrative around AI continues to be the major (the only?) force driving markets moves. To wit, after having surpassed the 5 trillion market cap threshold only a few weeks ago, Nvidia’s share price fell more than 12% and wiped out more than 540 billion in market value. So what? A flurry of positive news propelled Alphabet’s share price by more than 13%, translating into a $470 billion surge in market cap… Even credit markets dance on the tempo imposed by AI, illustrated by Oracle’s exploding CDS after the technology giant announced an avalanche of new debt issuance to finance its AI ambitions.

The real economy does not seem fully in line with the markets’ optimism. Increasingly, commentators are referring to the now-(in)famous K-shaped recovery among consumers — a widening wealth gap between those who are thriving in this turbulent environment and those who feel increasingly left behind. The surge in populism seen in most Western nations is a clear outcome: inflation hits people very differently depending on their income bracket, breeding frustration and unrest among the hardest-pressed.

With most governments already heavily indebted and still running large deficits, finding a solution to this problem becomes even more complicated.
Close, but no cigar for the bears: the MSCI World added a meagre 0.18% in November, while the S&P500 grappled 13 basis points; Europe did well with +0.8% for the Stoxx 600, and China and Emerging Markets gave back some of the previous gains (-2.5% for both). In a more volatile month, Value outperformed Growth by a comfortable margin (+1.9% versus -1.3%) and credit, despite some idiosyncratic spread widening from here to there, posted another strong month with +0.8% for the Itraxx Crossover. Gold’s unstoppable rise doesn’t seem to fade, as the shiny stuff powered ahead again: up 5.9% for the month and 61.5% for the year. Uneven consumer sentiment and higher probabilities of Venezuelan’s oil coming back to the market pressured the WTI again; it was down 4% in November, and is now down 18.4% in 2025.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

October 2025 Market Comments

“Hits from the Bong”, Cypress Hill, 1993

Scratch that; let’s light up Cypress Hill’s “Hits from the Bong”, that 1993 stoner anthem, honouring Dusty Springfield’s extraordinary “Son of a Preacher” music. Because in this month’s financial fog, one thing’s clear: investors needed a serious toke just to stay chill amid the bonkers capex numbers and the tangled web of cross-investments tying Big Tech into a smoky pretzel.

Nvidia is the bong’s main chamber, shipping GPUs like they’re going out of style, as its $5 billion stake in Intel and up-to-$100 billion pour into OpenAI’s Stargate mega-project (a $500 billion joint with SoftBank and Oracle) recycle billions right back into NVDA’s coffers. AMD’s snagging 10% of OpenAI’s chip spend, Meta’s eyeing $20 billion in Oracle cloud, and CoreWeave’s $6.3 billion Nvidia order guarantees the loop keeps spinning – it’s a circular high where everyone’s investing in everyone else’s high.

Capex numbers are straight-up hallucinogenic: more than $500 billion projected for 2026 across hyperscalers, dwarfing entire economies and echoing the dot-com wiring frenzy, but with AI’s promise of trillion-dollar payoffs… or bust. So, like Cypress Hill advises, “Take a hit from the bong, get stoned and forget your troubles, man.” In this AI-fueled haze, staying calm means recognizing the genius in the chaos – cross-investments are diversifying risks while fueling the fire – but keep an eye on the exit when the high fades.

Markets jumped to the beat and revelled in this atmosphere. The MSCI World added 1.94% in October, the Stoxx 600 Europe 2.46%, the Japanese Topix 6.2% and Emerging Markets 4.12%. The ever-growing focus on AI and AI-related plays has triggered another massive outperformance from Growth versus Value and from market-cap versus equal-weighted benchmarks. To wit, the MSCI World Growth and the S&P500 respectively added 4.19% and 2.27% in October, versus -0.59% and -1.04% for the MSCI World Value and the S&P Equal-Weighted. What a stark contrast, leading many to wonder if diversification will pay off again, eventually.

Earnings published so far have been very positive and, more importantly, confirmed the ongoing unprecedented capex frenzy in AI infrastructure at large. Added to that, interest rates are supportive and the Fed doesn’t ring any alarm bell when it comes to inflation. US 10 year yields have headed down 8 out of 10 months in 2025. Credit performed well again despite some isolated failures, and the Itraxx Crossover rose again, for the 8th time out of 10 in 2025! After a parabolic rise at the beginning of the month, Gold calmed down but still recorded a 3.73% rise, which makes it the shining star in 2025 with a +52.5% performance in USD. The dollar regained some ground versus all major currencies but still lags for the year.

That’s it for this month’s Market Comments, stay tuned, markets never skip a beat.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group