Chart of the month: Gold, Gold, Gold. Switzerland the quiet giant.

Gold, Gold, Gold. Switzerland the quiet giant.

 

gold Switzerland
Source: World Gold Council, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Bloomberg, NS Partners. Image generated by artificial intelligence based on author-provided content.

 

The gold rush is back. Gold has climbed to new record highs, emerging as the top-performing asset class year-to-date, with gains above +50% in USD. From private investors to central banks, demand has surged across the board.

Gold remains an ultimate hedge against inflation, currency debasement and uncertainty, a safe harbor when markets tremble. Amid the global search for safety, Switzerland stands out as a quiet pillar of strength.

Did you know that Switzerland holds more gold per capita than any other country in the world?

The Swiss National Bank currently holds around 1,040 tonnes of gold, equivalent to roughly 100 billion Swiss francs in value, placing Switzerland seventh worldwide in total holdings. On a per capita basis, this corresponds to about 118 grams of gold per Swiss resident, which is the highest ratio in the world. Although the Swiss franc has not been backed by gold since 1999, the Swiss National Bank continues to maintain substantial reserves. This reflects Switzerland’s enduring tradition of financial prudence, stability and independence.

This impressive reserve position has a measurable impact. In 2024, the rise in gold prices generated an unrealized gain of CHF 21.2 billion, contributing significantly to the Swiss National Bank’s record profit of around CHF 80 billion. In early 2025, gold prices surged further, adding CHF 12.8 billion in valuation gains in the first quarter, partially offsetting foreign currency headwinds. By mid-2025, after a moderate correction in gold prices, unrealized gains stood at CHF 8.6 billion, confirming gold’s role as a key stabilizing factor in the Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet.

Switzerland’s strength extends well beyond its reserves. The same principles that underpin its monetary discipline are visible across the real economy. A focus on high value-added sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery and precision engineering has built a foundation of sustainable growth and innovation, rather than reliance on low-margin industries such as automotive.

Resilience is not only an economic story; it is also a market story. Switzerland is a strong economy, with a resilient industry and a robust financial market. Over the past decade, Swiss small and mid-caps have shown consistent outperformance. While this momentum has moderated over the past five years, performance has reaccelerated over the most recent twelve months. Still, it is precisely within Swiss small and mid-caps that the most attractive opportunities reside, featuring hidden champions and niche innovators offering long-term value potential.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS Partners provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data, quotes, research notes or other financial instrument referred to in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer.  Additional information is available on request.
© NS Partners Group

Chart of the month: Gold, Gold, Gold. Switzerland the quiet giant.

Gold, Gold, Gold. Switzerland the quiet giant.

 

gold Switzerland
Source: World Gold Council, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Bloomberg, NS Partners. Image generated by artificial intelligence based on author-provided content.

 

The gold rush is back. Gold has climbed to new record highs, emerging as the top-performing asset class year-to-date, with gains above +50% in USD. From private investors to central banks, demand has surged across the board.

Gold remains an ultimate hedge against inflation, currency debasement and uncertainty, a safe harbor when markets tremble. Amid the global search for safety, Switzerland stands out as a quiet pillar of strength.

Did you know that Switzerland holds more gold per capita than any other country in the world?

The Swiss National Bank currently holds around 1,040 tonnes of gold, equivalent to roughly 100 billion Swiss francs in value, placing Switzerland seventh worldwide in total holdings. On a per capita basis, this corresponds to about 118 grams of gold per Swiss resident, which is the highest ratio in the world. Although the Swiss franc has not been backed by gold since 1999, the Swiss National Bank continues to maintain substantial reserves. This reflects Switzerland’s enduring tradition of financial prudence, stability and independence.

This impressive reserve position has a measurable impact. In 2024, the rise in gold prices generated an unrealized gain of CHF 21.2 billion, contributing significantly to the Swiss National Bank’s record profit of around CHF 80 billion. In early 2025, gold prices surged further, adding CHF 12.8 billion in valuation gains in the first quarter, partially offsetting foreign currency headwinds. By mid-2025, after a moderate correction in gold prices, unrealized gains stood at CHF 8.6 billion, confirming gold’s role as a key stabilizing factor in the Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet.

Switzerland’s strength extends well beyond its reserves. The same principles that underpin its monetary discipline are visible across the real economy. A focus on high value-added sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery and precision engineering has built a foundation of sustainable growth and innovation, rather than reliance on low-margin industries such as automotive.

Resilience is not only an economic story; it is also a market story. Switzerland is a strong economy, with a resilient industry and a robust financial market. Over the past decade, Swiss small and mid-caps have shown consistent outperformance. While this momentum has moderated over the past five years, performance has reaccelerated over the most recent twelve months. Still, it is precisely within Swiss small and mid-caps that the most attractive opportunities reside, featuring hidden champions and niche innovators offering long-term value potential.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS Partners provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data, quotes, research notes or other financial instrument referred to in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer.  Additional information is available on request.
© NS Partners Group

November general market comments

market comments

“Loser” – Beck, 1993

In November 2024, the loser was Mrs Harris and the winner Mr Trump. Equity markets reacted by designating the bulls as winners and the bears as losers. But they already made that choice prior to the US elections, so it is fair to assume that November’s party was more about this uncertainty about the outcome of the polls being cleared.

For the whole year 2024 so far, it was quite a challenge to be a loser: equity markets have been very strong, credit spreads are almost as low as they can be, and Gold and cryptos soared. Only long duration Government bonds struggled, while Oil  slightly fell.

How to explain investors’ insatiable thirst for risky assets (equities, credit, cryptos among others) ? Although the craze about Artificial Intelligence is clearly part of the explanation (think about Nvidia’s 179% increase), the fact that the US economy has proven much more resilient than expected certainly gave equity and credit markets a solid reason to post pleasant returns. When it comes to cryptos, a combination of Mr Trump’s favorable stance, ever-increasing levels of Government debt everywhere and political as well as geopolitical uncertainties (also valid for Gold) must be the multiple causes for the spectacular performance of these assets in 2024.

If November has been strong, there were nevertheless different classes of winners: the US stock market and Growth stocks led the charge (+5.73% for the S&P 500 and +5.26% for the MSCI World Growth), while Europe was slightly up (+0.96% for the Stoxx 600), the broad dollar index and the Itraxx Crossover respectively gained 1.69% and 1.27%. And there were losers: the Japanese Topix abandoned 0.55%, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.66%, Oil and Gold receded by 1.82% and 3.67%. Long-term Government bonds yields headed down across the board, certainly providing another tailwind for Growth versus Value.

That’s it for this month’s Market Comments, stay tuned, markets never skip a beat.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

November General Market Comments

November General Market Comments

“The Lifeboat Party” – Kid Creole and the Coconuts, 1983.

During tumultuous times, high grade Government bonds are often considered as the lifeboat for investors, who can park their money there, waiting for better days to arise, or simply because they expect more dovish monetary policies down the road, which would push yields down and, hence, prop up fixed-income prices.

November 2023 has clearly responded to this logic, with both arguments validated: after two horrendous months for equities, there was a need for safer havens on the one hand, and, on the other hand, slowing inflation and cooling economic statistics buoyed the idea that Central Banks (and especially the Fed) were done raising rates, and that cuts might come sooner than expected.

The strength of the rebound  in November has been spectacular; the fixed-income lifeboat party has dragged all assets in its wake, from equities, to credit and Gold.

The MSCI World has gained 9.2%, the S&P 500 8.9%, the Stoxx 600 6.5%, the MSCI Emerging Markets 7.9%, and the Topix 5.4%. In the context of falling yields (-60 basis points for the US 10 year and -36 for the German Bund), Growth has, again, dominated with a 11.1% rise for the MSCI World Growth versus +7.1% for the MSCI World Value. On a year to date basis, the performance gap is immense (+30.2% versus +3.3%). It is noticeable that the “fear gauge”, in other words the VIX Index, has cratered by almost 29% in November, and is now down more than 40% for 2023.

As said, Gold glittered and gained 2.7%, quite a normal feat when yields fall, and the dollar receded versus all currencies.

“This party is in honour of the will to survive” says Kid in his 1983 hit; although there are chances that December remains quiet, we can wonder who’s gonna survive in 2024, to either an economic downturn, or a renewed rout of rising rates if the economy holds better than expected. Something will have to give.

That’s it for this month’s Market Comments, stay tuned, markets never skip a beat.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

February General Market Comments

February General Market Comments

“This world today is a mess” – Donna Hightower, 1972.

A slowdown (or a recession?) is expected, but economic releases do not support this projection yet; hard landing, soft landing or no landing (?); China is reopening, but underperforms; Oil is supposed to get scarcer, but do not rise; a weakening dollar is in everybody’s mind, but the greenback doesn’t seem to agree; long term yields rise, but Growth outperforms; Turkey is a NATO member and sends drones to help Ukraine, but also buys Oil and Gas from Russia; Chinese balloons fly over the US and its fighter jets circle around Taiwan; Mammoth Mountain in California has a 5 meters snow base, while Zermatt in Switzerland has 10 centimeters; and the list goes on. Yes, this world today is a real crazy mess.

Markets have a hard time performing well when too much uncertainties hover around; they wander even more when contradicting signals show up, which is clearly the case. The outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is anybody’s guess, but this might not be what drives market sentiment (although a severe escalation would undoubtedly trigger a massive sell-off); it is still Central Banks, monetary policies and interest rates which heavily weigh on the direction of markets, and in parallel the economic outlook.

Here again, making predictions often equals to betting on the black or the red at the roulette…

Even though markets struggled in February, they did resist somewhat, as only a fraction of the gains recorded in January were erased: the MSCI World abandoned 2.53% but is still up 4.3% year to date as an example; the S&P 500 lost 2.6%, the Nasdaq 0.5%, but the dollar was strong (+2.72% for the DXY), which can provide an explanation for the positive returns from the MSCI Europe and the Topix (+1.6% and +0.9%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets’ weakness (-6.5%). In the context of rising interest rates (+41 bps and +37 bps for the US and the German 10 year yields respectively) and falling Commodity prices (-2.3% for the WTI and -3% for the CRB Index), Gold logically fell (-5.3%). Credit enjoyed a second positive month in a row: the Itraxx Crossover advanced 0.5% last month and is now up 3.5% year to date.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

Investing in picks and shovels

Investing in picks and shovels

The 1848-1855 California Gold Rush attracted thousands of fortune seekers. While some found a few nuggets, many went away empty-handed, having lost a lot of money. However, pickaxe and shovel sellers did pretty well out of those caught up in the gold fever. Although this was a less enticing prospect than discovering a vein of gold, these traders made big profits.

Merchants do better than prospectors

Today we are in the midst of a 30-year transition towards decarbonising our economy, which makes “transition metals” look like a particularly attractive investment opportunity – as the sellers of picks and shovels of yesteryear did. Indeed, current investors are on the hunt for gold. i.e. the future market leaders in electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, wind energy, public electricity utilities or solar panels. But what all these sectors have in common is a huge need for transition metals, which could provide the real big wins of the move to decarbonisation.

Metals vital to the transition

One such essential metal is lithium, which is used in laptop batteries, smartphones and electric vehicles, as well as energy storage. Lithium is found in mines and in brine deposits and lithium-rich salts. Rare earth elements, such as neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium, are used to make the permanent magnets needed for EVs and wind turbines. They can be found in small amounts all over the world, but China is the country that is most active in mining and refining them. Several companies based in North America and Australia are also major suppliers. Uranium, meanwhile, is increasingly being used as a replacement fuel for coal, fuel oil and natural gas in nuclear power plants. A number of the biggest uranium suppliers are in Canada. Copper will directly benefit from the increasing electrification, as it is needed for enhancing the electricity grid, wiring EVs and connecting wind turbines to the grid.

China plays an important role in refining and supplying these transition metals, but bedfore rushing in, investors must take into account the risks attached to investing in a country without fully reliable legal and economic structures. Countries with less government intervention and a more stable legal system are likely to be a better bet.

The recently passed US Inflation Reduction Act, which supports clean energy financing, as well as forthcoming EU regulations promoting the adoption of cleaner energy technologies, will increase demand for transition metals. As a result, investing in the ‘picks and shovels’ of the energy transition – which should continue over the next 30 years – may be the way to go.

 

Article published in Le Temps, 6 February, 2023

Investir dans les pelles et le pioches

 

January General Market Comments

January General Market Comments

“C’est comme ça” – Les Rita Mitsouko, 1986.

“C’est comme ça” could be translated into “That’s the way it is”; most markets were up in January, after a very painful December, but looking a tad longer term, it appears that, in general, markets have ended January 2023 not very far from the levels reached at the end of July 2022, with in between very nice months and very bad months, a common feature of all these months being a high level of volatility, as the MSCI World has moved in excess of 4% on the way up or on the way down every single month since July. We have to cope with high volatility when so many things are highly different than during the period 2017-2021, c’est comme ça…

Reasons for such a different context are well-known: higher inflation, higher interest rates, hawkish central banks, rising commodity prices, supply-chain issues and the war in Ukraine. Added to that, equity, fixed-income and credit markets started 2022 with demanding valuations, and if the latter have indeed corrected since then, they can’t be considered as cheap today, still. This means that volatility should stay with us for a while, and very much attention will be paid to economic data as well as Central Banks’ responses.

But let’s enjoy the party so far: the S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, buoyed by its IT and Communication Services components notably; in this context, the Nasdaq added 10.6% and the MSCI World Growth 9.7% (versus “only” +4.6% for the MSCI World Value). Europe and Emerging Markets fared well (+6.7% and +7.9% respectively), with Japan lagging a smidgen (but still up 4.4%).

The month was also good for fixed-income and credit, as the US and the German 10 year yields fell 37 and 29 bps respectively and the Itraxx Crossover gained 3%. Helped by lower yields and a weaker dollar (-1.5% versus the euro), Gold soared 5.7%, while Oil retreated by 1.7%.

That’s it for this month’s Market Comments, stay tuned, markets never skip a beat.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

December General Markets Comments

December General Markets Comments

“Heroes” – David Bowie, 1977.

2022 could have been year for heroes in financial markets. Imagine that, after Jay Powell’s announcement in November 2021 of higher for longer interest rates, you had positioned your portfolios for a 250 bps increase in US 10-year yields and for 8 Fed Funds Rates hikes totalling 425 bps. You would be a hero.

Even more a hero if you had bought energy stocks because you suspected that a war would break out in Europe and drive oil and gas prices through the roof. Even more again if you went short en vogue cryptocurrencies and Tesla, as both suffered very serious drawdowns for various reasons.

But at the end of the year, it appears that there were no heroes, as no one could have predicted the landslide changes the year 2022 witnessed. Years of accommodative monetary policies and peaceful times kind of hypnotized many investors who thought that Growth had beaten Value forever and that Central Bankers would always be market friendly. “We can beat them, forever and ever” says the song; 2022 shows once again that this does not apply for markets.

December has been a painful month, as evidenced by the negative returns posted by all asset classes, barring Gold (+3.14%): the S&P 500 abandoned 5.9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 9.1% (Tesla being a serious detractor with -36.7%), the MSCI Europe 3.6%, the Topix 4.7% and the MSCI Emerging Markets “only” 1.6%, helped by China’s U-turn on its zero-Covid stance.

Long-term yields rose again (+27 bps for the US 10-year, +64 bps for the Bund), in parallel with another month of underperformance from Growth versus Value (-6.15% and -2.6% respectively). Credit was flattish (-0.4% for the Itraxx Crossover), like Oil (-0.4%). The broad Commodities Index was down 0.7%.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

Commentaires de marché – Novembre

Commentaires de marché – Novembre

“Don’t Stop” – Fleetwood Mac, 1977. Un hommage à la regrettée Christine McVie (1943-2022).

“Ne t’arrête pas” c’est ce que nous voudrions tous dire au marché après deux très bons mois consécutifs — une première cette année. Pour rappel, le MSCI World a progressé de près de 14% depuis fin septembre. La dernière fois qu’une reprise aussi spectaculaire a été enregistrée sur une période de deux mois remonte à novembre et décembre 2020, juste après l’annonce par Pfizer-BioNTech de la mise au point de leur vaccin contre la covid.

Parmi les nombreuses causes de ce puissant rebond, citons en premier lieu la Fed et les taux d’intérêt: les chiffres de l’inflation publiés au début du mois aux États-Unis semblent indiquer que le pic d’inflation pourrait être derrière nous, ce que Jerome Powell a plus ou moins soufflé dans son discours du 30 novembre. En conséquence, les taux souverains à long terme ont reculé, ce qui a quelque peu soutenu les valorisations. Par ailleurs, certains investisseurs nourrissent l’espoir que la politique chinoise du «zéro covid» s’avère tellement contraignante pour la population qu’il soit impossible pour le gouvernement de la maintenir sans mettre à mal la paix sociale. Or, un assouplissement des restrictions sanitaires chinoises serait favorable à la croissance mondiale, car il réduirait les tensions des chaînes d’approvisionnement et relancerait la consommation intérieure du pays. Enfin, les résultats du troisième trimestre ayant tous été publiés, les marchés se concentrent désormais sur les prévisions des entreprises, qui, en général, ne sont pas si mauvaises. Quant à la débâcle de FTX, elle nous offre une excellente occasion de mettre en avant quelques grandes chansons de Fleetwood Mac, car les «Petits mensonges» (Little Lies) de M. SBF n’ont provoqué aucun «Raz de marée» (Landslide) et n’ont pas non plus brisé «La chaîne» (The Chain) des marchés traditionnels: «Passez votre chemin» (Go Your Own Way), M. SBF.

Le MSCI World a gagné 6,8% le mois dernier, le S&P500 5,4% et le MSCI Europe 6,7%. Mais la vedette du mois est sans conteste le MSCI Emerging Markets, qui a bondi de 14,6% (malgré un repli de 21,1% sur l’année 2022). Pour une fois, les actions de croissance n’ont pas surperformé les actions décotées au cours d’un mois de baisse des taux d’intérêt, ce qui est assez inhabituel. Les marchés obligataires et du crédit ont également profité du rebond: les taux à 10 ans américains et allemands ont reculé respectivement de 44 et 21 points de base, et l’Itraxx Crossover a recouvré près de la moitié de ses pertes de l’année avec une hausse de 4,5%. Le pétrole a encore reculé de 6,9%, tandis que l’or, soutenu par la baisse des rendements réels, a gagné 8,3%.

 

 

 

 

Les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Les opinions, stratégies et instruments financiers décrits dans le présent document peuvent ne pas convenir à tous les investisseurs. Les opinions énoncées sont celles valables à la date de publication de ce document. Toute référence aux indices de marches ou composites, indices de référence, ou autres mesures de performance relative des marches a une certaine période sont indiquées à titre d’information. NS Partners ne donne aucune garantie et n’est aucunement responsable de l’exactitude et de l’exhaustivité de l’ensemble des informations (données financières de marche, cours de bourse, avis de recherche ou description de tout autre instrument financier) contenus dans ce document. Le présent document n’est pas destiné aux personnes ou entités qui seraient citoyennes ou résidentes d’un lieu, état, pays ou juridiction dans lesquels sa distribution, sa publication, sa mise à disposition ou son utilisation seraient contraires aux lois ou règlements en vigueur. Les informations et données fournies dans le présent document sont communiquées à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent ni une offre, ni une incitation à acheter, vendre ou souscrire a des titres ou tout autre instrument financier. Il est fait référence dans ce document a des fonds d’investissement qui n’ont pas été enregistrés auprès de la Finma et ne peuvent donc pas être distribues en ou depuis la suisse sauf à certaines catégories d’investisseurs éligibles. Certaines des sociétés du groupe NS Partners ou ses clients peuvent être détenteurs d’une position dans les instruments financiers de l’un des émetteurs mentionnes dans ce document, ou agir en tant que consultant pour l’un d’eux. Des informations supplémentaires sont disponibles sur demande. © Groupe NS Partners

November General Markets Comments

November General Markets Comments

“Don’t Stop” – Fleetwood Mac, 1977. A tribute to the late Christine McVie (1943-2022).

“Don’t stop” is what we all would like to say to markets after two very good months in a row, for the first time this year. For the record, the MSCI World has risen close to 14% since the end of September, the last time such a spectacular return happened on a two- month timeframe was in November and December 2020, right after Pfizer-BioNTech made public they had a vaccine against Covid.

The multifarious causes behind such a strong rebound are, first and foremost, the Fed and interest rates: inflation numbers published at the beginning of the month in the US seem to indicate that peak inflation might be behind us, which Jerome Powell more or less whispered in his November 30th speech. Long-term government bond yields consequently fell, offering some support to valuations. There are also some hopes among the investment community that China’s zero-Covid policies prove too much of a burden on the population for the government to maintain them without stymieing social calm; should China loosen its harsh sanitary measures, global growth would benefit from some relief on the supply-chain side and increased consumption in the country. Finally, as the Q3 earnings reports have all been published, markets now focus on the guidance provided by the corporate world, which, in general, was not that bad. Finally, the FTX debacle brings the opportunity to highlight some great Fleetwood Mac songs, as the “Little Lies” of Mr SBF did not provoke any “Landslide”, nor did it break “The Chain” in traditional markets; you can “Go Your Own Way”, Mr SBF.

The MSCI World added 6.8% last month, the S&P500 5.4% and the MSCI Europe 6.7%; but the star of the month was the MSCI Emerging Markets, which soared 14.6% (but is still down 21.1% in 2022); for once, Growth did not outperform Value in a month of falling interest rates, quite an unusual fact. Fixed income and credit markets also enjoyed the rally: the US and German10-year yields respectively fell 44 and 21 bps, and the Itraxx Crossover recouped almost half of its yearly losses with a 4.5% rise. Oil fell again (-6.9%), and Gold returned 8.3%, buoyed by falling real yields.

 

 

 

 

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