Protected: NS Macro Outlook & Investment Opportunities – 16 September 2025

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Protected: NS Macro Outlook & Investment Opportunities – 16 September 2025

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Swiss equities: resilient, diverse and poised for growth

A unique blend of stability, specialization, and long-term performance defines Switzerland’s investment landscape.

Switzerland’s equity market stands as a quiet powerhouse within the global investment arena. Renowned for its political neutrality, monetary prudence and economic resilience, the country offers investors a rare combination of safety and structural growth. While many investors are familiar with its multinational champions, Switzerland also offers a dynamic and diverse universe of mid- and small-cap companies that are often global leaders in their specialized niches.

A Prime Investment Opportunity

Amid persistent global economic headwinds, Switzerland continues to shine as a beacon of macroeconomic stability. Recent macroeconomic indicators confirm the robustness of the Swiss economy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) anticipates GDP growth of between 1% and 1.5% for the current year. The SNB maintains a balanced policy stance, and negative short-term yields point to potential rate cuts that could further support equities. Currency dynamics reinforce the attractiveness of Swiss assets. The Swiss franc remains strong. This strength reflects investor confidence in Switzerland’s macroeconomic foundations and offers international investors a natural hedge in volatile markets.

Defensive by Design, with Long-Term performance

At the large-cap level, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) is heavily weighted toward defensive sectors. Global leaders like Nestlé, Roche and Novartis provide earnings visibility, dividend reliability and resilience in turbulent markets. The SMI’s consistent resilience has established it as a cornerstone of defensive equity strategies, offering stability and reliable performance through market cycles.
Over the past decade, Swiss small- and mid-cap equities, as represented by the SPI Extra Index (SPIEX), have outperformed the Swiss Market Index (SMI). However, during the most recent market cycle, SPIEX underperformed, presenting a compelling recovery opportunity for forward-looking investors.

The Untapped Potential of Mid and Small-Cap Swiss Stocks

Beyond the headline giants lies a thriving ecosystem of over 190 listed mid- and small-cap companies, many of which are global leaders in highly specialized segments. This includes firms such as VAT Group, which supplies vacuum valves to the semiconductor industry, Belimo, a world leader in HVAC automation and Siegfried Holding, a contract manufacturer for the global pharmaceutical sector. These companies are not only highly specialized but also financially robust, often combining strong free cash flow with low leverage and disciplined capital allocation.
While small- and mid-caps naturally carry higher liquidity risk and occasional valuation premiums, the growth-to-risk trade-off remains compelling, especially in a country with such disciplined governance and transparency standards.

Strategic Sector Exposure

Switzerland’s equity market is structurally overweight in defensive sectors. Compared to the MSCI All Country World Index, where defensives represent less than 20%, the Swiss market stands at over 65%. This offers investors a rare opportunity to gain long-duration exposure to non-cyclical sectors such as healthcare, food and beverage, and insurance.
Meanwhile, exposure to high-growth themes is embedded in Switzerland’s mid-cap space: biotech, medtech, sustainable construction, fintech and advanced manufacturing all feature prominently.

A Note on Sustainability

While not always at the forefront of equity narratives, ESG and sustainability are deeply embedded in the Swiss corporate culture. Most Swiss-listed companies, large and small, publish detailed ESG reports and actively incorporate long-term environmental goals. The country itself draws the bulk of its electricity from renewable sources, notably hydropower, and leads Europe in carbon footprint transparency.
As investors increasingly integrate ESG considerations into capital allocation, Switzerland offers a highly aligned investment landscape.

Depth Beyond the Headlines

As concerns rise, the investment landscape remains notably resilient. Meanwhile, the broader economic outlook is cautiously optimistic: the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) forecasts a 1.4% GDP growth (adjusted for sporting events. The Swiss National Bank’s pragmatic and flexible monetary policy further supports the investment environment, while sustainable assets and corporate bonds maintain their appeal in diversified portfolios. These dynamics create a backdrop where selectivity and long-term perspective are rewarded. Despite the challenges of a strong franc and ongoing global trade tensions, Switzerland continues to stand out for its historical market resilience, economic strength, institutional quality and sectoral diversity. Swiss equities, particularly beyond the large-cap names in the SMI, offer strategic exposure to a blend of defensive stability and innovation-led growth. Switzerland is no longer just a safe haven; it is a structurally sound, forward-looking market. For investors ready to look beyond the familiar, it offers access to some of the world’s most innovative and well-managed companies, hidden in plain sight, yet central to the portfolios of the future.

At NS Partners in our Swiss Excellence strategy, we recognize and harness Swiss strength. Our strategy blends exposure to Switzerland’s blue-chip multinationals with a concentrated portfolio of 45 stocks, including 26 high-quality small and mid-sized companies outside the SMI, striking a balance between stability and growth potential. Our investment approach is based on fundamental quality and long-term value creation. We focus on companies with sustained earnings momentum, reasonable valuations relative to growth (PEG discipline), strong free cash flow generation and solid balance sheets. The result is a portfolio that has outperformed Switzerland’s three largest companies in price return since inception, while offering significantly greater exposure to innovation, growth sectors and underappreciated names.

Chart of the month: From safe haven to power play: the Swiss market unleashed

From safe haven to power play: the Swiss market unleashed

Source: Bloomberg, NS Partners

 

Switzerland is globally renowned for its breathtaking landscapes, world-class ski resorts, and prestigious watchmaking industry. However, beyond its scenic beauty, Switzerland boasts world-leading companies in niche industries and stands as a safe haven with untapped potential. It offers a compelling opportunity for investors seeking stability and long-term growth, supported by resilient market fundamentals and a strong economic framework.

 

In recent years, investors have heavily concentrated their portfolios in the U.S. technology sector, particularly in the “Magnificent 7.” However, the recent AI-driven “red wave” has highlighted the risks of overconcentration. The market’s reaction to DeepSeek’s debut served as a stark reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift, underscoring the importance of diversification. In this context, Swiss equities present a compelling opportunity. Known for their strong balance sheets and earnings growth, Swiss companies provide exposure to high-value niche industries. The Swiss market, by nature, has shown a defensive character over time, with key sectors including consumer staples, insurance, utilities, and pharmaceuticals accounting for more than half of its market composition. Post-DeepSeek turbulence, the Swiss market’s defensive qualities shine even brighter.

 

Since the beginning of the year, Swiss indices have outperformed global peers, with the Swiss Market Index posting impressive gains of 8.59% in January.  Demonstrating resilience on January 27th. Adding defensive position remains a time-tested strategy, amid persistent volatility and uncertainty in global markets. Swiss blue chips such as Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis continue to serve as cornerstone holdings for stability-focused portfolios. However, the true opportunity may lie beyond these household names. While large-cap Swiss stocks attract the most attention, mid-cap companies represent a largely untapped growth avenue. Mid-caps, often in their expansion phases, offer significant growth potential backed by strong fundamentals. That said, careful valuation assessments are essential to mitigate risks related to liquidity constraints and premium pricing.

 

Recent market movements have not disrupted the positive trajectory of several Swiss stocks, with double-digit gains in key names such as Cie Financiere Richemont, Logitech, UBS, Roche, and Partners Group. But also, gems like Galderma, Sandoz Straumann, Swissquote, Comet, Sulzer and Belimo.

 

Switzerland’s monetary policy remains supportive of economic growth. The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain a dovish stance, with the potential for lower or even negative interest rates. Such a policy environment provides an additional tailwind for Swiss equities, particularly for export-oriented firms.

 

For investors seeking a blend of diversification, stability, innovation, and growth, Swiss equities offer a compelling solution. In today’s unpredictable market environment, having a solid Swiss allocation may not just be a luxury—it might be a necessity.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS Partners provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data, quotes, research notes or other financial instrument referred to in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer.  Additional information is available on request.
© NS Partners Group

Chart of the Month – Swiss Made

Swiss Made

Source: Bloomberg. Notz Stucki
Source: Bloomberg, Notz Stucki

The Swiss equity market is a strange animal which exhibits pretty unique characteristics: in a small country in terms of size and population, no less than 4 mega multinationals are listed on the stock market, and completely distort the average metrics traditionally used to assess the attractiveness of an index. The famous 4 are Nestlé, Novartis, Roche and UBS which, combined, reach close to CHF 760 bln in market cap!

As a reminder, there are three indices for the Swiss market:

1) The SMI, composed of the largest and most liquid 20 companies.
2) The SPI, representing the broad market and composed of 212 companies.
3) The SPIEX, which is simply the SPI without the 20 stocks of the SMI.

Table Swiss Made

As is often the case, there are many wonders to discover when looking under the surface. The universe of Swiss listed companies comprises many world leaders in niche products or industries, with a wide variety of specialties. Do a lot of non-Swiss investors know something about Sonova, or Belimo, or Forbo Holding? Certainly not, despite the fact that these three companies are integrated world leaders: hearing systems for Sonova, Belimo for air-volume controls and Forbo for flooring and moving systems. And these are just three examples among many others.

While we don’t question the strong positions of the big leaders, we think investors interested in Swiss equities would lose the most attractive part of the market by focusing on the SMI. Historical performances strongly confirm this view: the SPIEXX index has outperformed the SPI and the SMI over 5, 10 or 15 years by a wide margin. Let’s also remember that compared to other markets, these performances have been done in CHF, by far the best currency in the world.

So when we manage our Swiss equity fund DGC Swiss Excellence, we pay attention to these smaller companies which are decisive contributors to investors’ returns over time. Although we invest into the larger companies, our portfolio also holds 80 companies which are not in the SMI Index. And they add value: as we focus on Price Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, Free Cash Flow Generation and low levels of debt, the chart of the month shows that our portfolio shows better or identical attributes than the “Big 4” for these metrics. And there’s no reason to believe it will reverse any time soon!